The Golden State Warriors look to avoid their sixth straight loss tonight as they travel to Salt Lake City to face the Utah Jazz. Utah is just one game behind Golden State, and with the Warriors giving up an average of 118 pts/game in the last five, the Jazz should be confident heading into this one.
AccuScore Projection
AccuScore simulations have the Utah Jazz as slight 56.7 percent favorites, with the score averaging out to 102.4 – 101.3. Utah is currently favored by 3.5 points; Golden State has a 54.3 percent chance of covering the +3.5 spread. There is an even chance (50 percent) the total goes over or under 203.5. If you’re going to give the recent Warriors’ five-game stretch more weight than the whole season, bet on the game to go over. The total has gone over in 8 of Golden State’s last 9 games on the road. Via OddsShark, the total has gone under in 11 of Utah’s last 12 games when playing Golden State.
For those looking to bet on this game, the safest bet is to take Utah on the money line. Utah is 11-2 straight up in their last 13 games at home. Utah is also 13-3 straight up in its last 16 games when playing at home against Golden State. If you are betting on the spread, the Warriors have been 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings between the teams, 7-3 in the last 10.
The projected turnovers for the Warriors should worry any GS fan. As of late, they have been horrendous defensively; for the season, they give up over 104 points on the road. Add in that they are projected to turn the ball over nearly 5 more times than the Jazz and you have a recipe for another loss.
Golden State is projected to shoot approximately 3-4 more three-pointers than Utah, a stat that should somewhat worry a Jazz fan. The Warriors are projected to make 7.1 / 18.3 from beyond the arc tonight, 38.8 percent. For the season, they make approximately 7.8 / 19.8, 39.3 percent. Golden State had not been playing its best ball, and the All-Star break could be exactly what they needed. Curry, who shoots nearly 45 percent from three on the season, has been hovering around 35 percent in the last five games. Expect him to shoot closer to the 45 percent mark from the three.
The Warriors won the last contest between the two teams 94-83 in Utah on December 26 behind 23 from Curry, and 18 & 9 from David Lee. The Warriors shot 9-18 from long range, while the Jazz shot 4-17. The Warriors had 25 fast break points to just 5 for the Jazz.
I’ve made the mistake twice this season of picking against Utah when they’re at home. Utah knows they need this win to keep climbing the standings, and I think they come out strong to start the second portion of the regular season. Utah looked a bit soft when they lost to Golden State in December, I’m expecting the Jazz to make more of a statement tonight.
Game prediction – Utah by 7.
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Golden State
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Utah Jazz
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Trends via OddsShark
Golden State Warriors Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Phoenix are 6-4
After playing Houston are 6-4
After a loss are 3-7
Utah Jazz Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing LA Clippers are 4-6
After playing Minnesota are 2-8
After a win are 6-4
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This is going to be a tough one! I'm just hoping that the Jazz can build on two tough wins last week and avoid the post-All-Star Break hangover. One advantage? David Lee actually had to play on Sunday, so maybe he'll be gassed by the third quarter.
Jazz win 106-101