The visiting San Antonio Spurs (18-4) will look to get their sixth straight win tonight as they get set to face the Utah Jazz (12-10). San Antonio is coming off a 134-126 OT win over Houston, while the Jazz come into the game after beating the Lakers 117-100.
Although Utah is known for having a solid home-court advantage, keep in mind that these spurs are 11-2 on the road. They are at Utah tonight and Portland tomorrow night. The Jazz have lost just one game all season in Salt Lake City (one point loss to the Clippers), an indication that tonight will be a close and competitive contest.
Via AccuScore simulations, the Spurs are slight 51.3 percent favorites over the Jazz. The average score is 103-101. The Spurs are favored by 3.5 points but cover that spread just 41.8 percent of the time. The total score stays under 208.5 nearly 60 percent of the time. The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio’s last 5 games on the road. If you are thinking about betting on this game, the more likely picks would be to take the Spurs on the money line and/or the Jazz and the points if betting the spread. I won’t lie to you though, the Spurs run like clockwork and they can blow a team out any given day of the week. They got a big win (10 points of more) in 28.8 percent of their simulated wins; the Jazz got a big win in 18.8 percent of theirs.
Looking at the projected stats, a few categories stand out to me immediately. The offensive rebounding advantage that Utah is projected to have should result in 2-3 extra possessions, which seems like could be the difference in the final score. Utah is also projected to take care of the ball slightly better than San Antonio.
The Spurs are projected to attempt 21+ 3-pointers compared to approximately 15 for Utah; we know that teams can live and die by the three, but if the Utah defense doesn’t rotate well from tip-off, the Spurs could be living large.
Game Prediction: Spurs by 4
San Antonio Spurs
| Forecasts | PTS | FGM | FGA | FG% | FTM | FTA | FT% | 3PM | 3PA | AST | STL | TO | OREB | TREB | BLK |
| Tony Parker | 19.3 | 7.6 | 15.6 | 49% | 3.7 | 4.6 | 79% | 0.3 | 1.1 | 8.3 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 0.1 |
| Tim Duncan | 15.6 | 6.1 | 12.8 | 48% | 3.3 | 4.5 | 73% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 10.2 | 1.9 |
| Gary Neal | 13.2 | 4.8 | 11.0 | 44% | 1.8 | 2.2 | 85% | 1.8 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 0.0 |
| Manu Ginobili | 12.7 | 4.2 | 9.8 | 42% | 3.0 | 3.5 | 84% | 1.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 0.3 |
| Tiago Splitter | 10.7 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 58% | 2.6 | 3.8 | 67% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 0.6 |
| Danny Green | 9.8 | 3.5 | 8.8 | 40% | 0.9 | 1.2 | 76% | 1.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 0.8 |
| DeJuan Blair | 6.4 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 52% | 0.8 | 1.2 | 66% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 0.1 |
| Boris Diaw | 5.6 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 47% | 0.5 | 0.7 | 70% | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 0.1 |
| Matt Bonner | 4.8 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 41% | 0.4 | 0.5 | 80% | 1.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 0.1 |
| Nando De Colo | 3.9 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 36% | 0.6 | 0.8 | 77% | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| SA Benchwarmers | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 42% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 62% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| TOTAL | 102.6 | 38.7 | 83.8 | 46% | 17.5 | 23.1 | 76% | 7.6 | 21.3 | 26.9 | 7.5 | 16.4 | 9.8 | 43.1 | 4.1 |
Utah Jazz
| Forecasts | PTS | FGM | FGA | FG% | FTM | FTA | FT% | 3PM | 3PA | AST | STL | TO | OREB | TREB | BLK |
| Al Jefferson | 16.3 | 6.7 | 14.3 | 47% | 2.9 | 3.9 | 73% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 10.3 | 1.5 |
| Paul Millsap | 14.9 | 5.6 | 11.8 | 47% | 3.6 | 5.0 | 73% | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 7.9 | 1.1 |
| Gordon Hayward | 12.4 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 40% | 3.6 | 4.4 | 82% | 0.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| Mo Williams | 12.0 | 4.3 | 10.2 | 42% | 2.0 | 2.2 | 90% | 1.4 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| Derrick Favors | 10.6 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 46% | 2.8 | 4.1 | 68% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 1.5 |
| Marvin Williams | 9.9 | 3.4 | 7.8 | 44% | 2.4 | 2.9 | 84% | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 0.1 |
| Randy Foye | 9.7 | 3.3 | 8.2 | 40% | 1.6 | 1.9 | 84% | 1.5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Enes Kanter | 5.8 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 49% | 0.9 | 1.4 | 64% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| DeMarre Carroll | 5.7 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 41% | 1.2 | 1.6 | 75% | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 0.5 |
| Earl Watson | 2.7 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 41% | 0.5 | 0.7 | 74% | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| UT Benchwarmers | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 44% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 71% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| TOTAL | 100.8 | 37.1 | 84.0 | 44% | 21.5 | 28.1 | 77% | 5.1 | 14.6 | 20.7 | 9.2 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 46.6 | 6.4 |
All data provided by AccuScore
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Gonna say if the Jazz can defend the perimeter players effectively tonight they have a shot to steal this one.
@Clintonite33 I'm gonna say the formula is simple: Get @DeMarreCarroll1 out there and have him blanket either Manu or Neal, whichever has the hotter hand. Duncan gets blocked more than either Diaw or Neal, so if Al can take advantage of that fact and DmC can shave off even 25% from either Neal's or Manu's production, Jazz win.
@WindFamiliar @DeMarreCarroll1 Maybe a little Tinsley on Parker too would help, by far Jazz's best PG defender.
@Clintonite33 I like your thinking; I picked DmC because of his smothering 8.2 opposing production. Similarly, Manu needs to be kept *OFF* Hayward/Foye.
I agree it will be close, but today just feels like a day the Jazz will beat the Spurs. That sounds a little funny, but I felt that confident Sunday night when we took it to the Fakers in LA. I say Jazz by 5. It's going to be an INCREDIBLY competitive contest no matter what, and should be really fun basketball tonight.
@SpencerDurrant For Jazz fans, let's hope your feelings prove to be true.
@RohitGhosh I think they will be. The Lakers monkey is off our back, I think it's time for the Spurs monkey to die too.
@CanadianBraeden I'm glad I called that game in writing. makes the win even more awesome. Thanks dude!
@SpencerDurrant Spencer Durrant: Prophet